By Zenel Celiku
The dust has settled after Kosovo’s latest elections, but the political landscape remains anything but clear. Albin Kurti’s Self-Determination Movement (VV) emerged as the leading political force, yet it fell short of securing enough seats to form a government on its own. With around 49-53 seats in the 120-seat parliament, Kurti now faces the daunting task of finding allies to reach the 61-seat threshold required to govern. The question on everyone’s mind is: What happens next?
A Fragile Victory for VV
While VV’s victory is undeniable, it is also incomplete. The party, which has positioned itself as a champion of reform and self-determination, now finds itself in a precarious position. Without the support of additional parties, Kurti cannot govern effectively. This has forced him to reach out to the opposition—a move that could either stabilize the government or lead to further political fragmentation.
The opposition, meanwhile, sees an opportunity. There is a strong possibility that opposition parties could unite to form a coalition government, sharing ministerial positions and responsibilities. However, such a government would likely be unstable, as it would rely on fragile alliances and competing interests. The question remains: Can Kosovo afford another unstable government?
The International Factor
Kosovo’s political dynamics are not just shaped by domestic actors but also by international pressures. The U.S. and the EU have been vocal in their criticism of Kurti’s government. Richard Grenell, the former U.S. envoy, openly called on Kosovars not to vote for Kurti, citing deteriorating U.S.-Kosovo relations under his leadership. Grenell’s statement undoubtedly influenced the election, as did the EU’s decision to block €150 million in grants to Kosovo due to disagreements with Kurti’s government.
Kurti’s strained relationship with international partners is a cause for concern. Kosovo owes its independence, in large part, to the historic support of the U.S. and the EU. The U.S. played a pivotal role in liberating Kosovo from Milosevic’s regime, while the EU has provided significant financial and military support over the years. Yet, under Kurti’s leadership, Kosovo has been labeled as uncooperative and dismissive of international advice. This raises an important question: Can Kosovo afford to alienate its most important allies?
The Road Ahead
The coming days will be critical as political leaders negotiate the formation of a new government. If VV attempts to govern with only minority parties, the government will be inherently unstable, struggling to pass legislation and secure the necessary votes. On the other hand, an opposition-led coalition would face its own challenges, including internal divisions and a lack of long-term political viability.
Adding to the complexity is the upcoming presidential election, which requires 81 votes in parliament. Neither VV nor the opposition currently has the numbers to secure this threshold, which could lead to a political deadlock and trigger early elections. This would reopen the “Pandora’s box” of political instability, further complicating Kosovo’s path forward.
